{"id":755,"date":"2026-09-20T11:32:18","date_gmt":"2026-09-20T11:32:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/regulasshipping.com\/blog\/vlcc-china-earnings-top-1-2-million-a-day-as-hormuz-shuttles-absorb-extra-hulls\/"},"modified":"2026-09-20T11:33:48","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T11:33:48","slug":"vlcc-china-earnings-top-1-2-million-a-day-as-hormuz-shuttles-absorb-extra-hulls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/regulasshipping.com\/blog\/vlcc-china-earnings-top-1-2-million-a-day-as-hormuz-shuttles-absorb-extra-hulls\/","title":{"rendered":"VLCC China Earnings Top $1.2 Million a Day as Hormuz Shuttles Absorb Extra Hulls"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Baltic Exchange\u2019s weekly tanker wrap dated 18 September 2026 put the standard VLCC on TD3C, the 270,000-tonne Middle East Gulf to China route, at Worldscale 1,140 on Thursday. That is a round-trip time-charter equivalent of $1,212,503 a day. A week earlier the same route was WS 929.44. Gibson\u2019s tanker report, also dated 18 September and recirculated on 19 September, assessed TD3C at $1,270,250 a day on 17 September, up $366,750 from $903,500 on 10 September and more than double last month\u2019s $614,500. TD34, Gulf of Oman to China, was WS 806.43 on the Baltic, or $870,947 a day. Gibson said WS 800 had been reported on that route, with a possible sign of a ceiling at the end of the week even as some charterers began looking at smaller sizes. Those prints are not a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. They are the price of moving a smaller number of barrels with more ships, more dark time, and more ship-to-ship work in the Gulf of Oman.<\/p>\n

Atlantic routes moved with the East. The Baltic put TD15, 260,000 tonnes West Africa to China, up 108 points to WS 531.25, or $524,575 a day. TD22, US Gulf to China, rose by more than $14.1 million to a lumpsum above $50.775 million, a TCE just over $388,400 a day. Gibson put the same US Gulf run near $400,000 a day on an eco basis and noted rumours of fixtures around the $50 million mark. The firmness is owners\u2019 control of a short list, not a statement that the Gulf of Mexico has become a Hormuz substitute. Prompt enquiry still has to appear next week before anyone knows whether the Atlantic has found a ceiling.<\/p>\n

Why more hulls are needed for fewer barrels<\/h2>\n

Gibson\u2019s operational point is the one that belongs in a voyage brief. Crude volumes through Hormuz have risen from the spring lows and remain well below pre-war levels. Convoyed shuttle movements of mainstream crude, largely on ageing vessels, have increased since June. Gibson puts total regional crude and dirty-products exports about 3.67 million barrels a day above the March\u2013May average, and says the true increase is likely higher because so much of the passage is conducted with AIS off. Those shuttle loads are then transferred in the wider Gulf of Oman onto often more modern tonnage for the Asia run. AIS shows ballast and laden VLCC counts inside the Arabian Gulf have declined, while the count sitting in the Gulf of Oman has surged by more than enough to offset that fall. In recent weeks the combined Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman VLCC population has exceeded the regional supply seen in January and February, before the war. Lower absolute volumes are absorbing more ships. That is an efficiency problem priced as freight.<\/p>\n

Houthi pressure on Saudi-controlled assets around Bab el-Mandeb has pushed Yanbu crude into the Mediterranean for onward westbound and Asia shipments. Gibson now counts close to 30 VLCCs in the East Med, from a previously marginal presence. Overall western VLCC supply is still described as broadly in line with mid-April to June, so the extra Mediterranean ships are a local pile-up, not a new Atlantic surplus. The unofficial repair window on the East\u2013West Petroline remains about five weeks. If Yanbu loadings fall for that period and no incremental barrels appear elsewhere, Gibson\u2019s own arithmetic is a net reduction in VLCC tonne-mile demand. Affected Mediterranean ballast ships are more likely to sit or to demand a premium to leave. Far East ballasters still have a reason to point at the Gulf of Oman while TD34 pays so far above western earnings. That incentive holds until freight corrects. It is not a reason to assume a Med VLCC will ballast to West Africa at last month\u2019s ideas.<\/p>\n

Attacks on vessels continue to nick the available list. Gibson says damage ranges from relatively minor to more substantial, and that repair time is offsetting some of the effect of newbuilding deliveries. The shuttle fleet is already skewed toward older hulls. A unit that is hit, detained, or held for survey is a unit that is not in the Gulf of Oman STS pattern the next week. Charterers who have been treating \u201cageing shuttle\u201d as a cheap way to keep barrels moving should price the off-hire and war-risk time, not only the Worldscale number on the long-haul ship that loads the second stem.<\/p>\n

What the rest of the sheet is doing<\/h2>\n

Suezmaxes are picking up the overflow. Gibson describes the Arabian Gulf Suezmax market as exceptionally active, with heavy Fujairah enquiry, a tight list, and fixtures at record levels, still politically driven by Gulf transit risk. West Africa Suezmaxes have firmed as VLCC cover became harder to work and split stems moved down a size. TD20, Nigeria to UK Continent, was WS 454.44 on the Baltic, about $238,500 a day. Asia Aframax earnings, Gibson said, surged to around $90,000 a day, almost doubling week on week, the first time the region has been above $80,000 since early 2023. Vancouver\u2013China Aframax TD28 rose by more than $500,000 to a $7.65 million lumpsum. Those adjacent markets are why a VLCC owner can refuse a weak number and wait. They are also why a charterer who cannot work a VLCC is not looking at a cheap substitute. The substitute has already repriced.<\/p>\n

Bunkers are the other half of the TCE. Gibson\u2019s table puts Fujairah VLSFO at $1,013 a tonne on 17 September, up $156 on the week, against Rotterdam at $724 and Singapore at $903. A Worldscale print that ignores the Fujairah number is not an earnings number for a Gulf of Oman loader. Clean LR2 and LR1 westbound lumpsums in the Arabian Gulf were reported on subjects at $7.5 million and $6.5 million. Those figures sit on a different sheet from TD3C. They are the reminder that the same disruption which is concentrating VLCCs in the Gulf of Oman is also concentrating products ships and bunker demand at the same end of the strait.<\/p>\n

On the demand side Gibson notes that China has done much of the heavy lifting this year by cutting crude imports and runs since the spring. A report circulated this week that Beijing is considering releasing up to 20 million tonnes of crude from strategic stocks to domestic refiners, which would limit seaborne buying. Independent refiners still need more mainstream barrels after the loss of Iranian supply, and an easing of product-export controls in August may let state refiners import more crude to support product exports. Gibson\u2019s caution is the right one for a fixture meeting: stronger Chinese buying would push oil prices higher and eventually cap demand. Exceptionally high VLCC rates are already diverting some cargo toward Suezmaxes. There is little in the political file to suggest the Middle East disruption ends this quarter. An increasing part of the market, Gibson says, is pricing disruption at least to the end of the year, and potentially beyond.<\/p>\n

What Operators Should Note<\/h2>\n